バブル崩壊、大暴落の五つの兆候

これは保存ものかな。取り敢えず貼っておく。

In 1929, a man named Roger Babson predicted the crash that would destroy the American economy. Wall Street laughed at him. 47 days later, they lost everything. Babson wasn't lucky. He identified a 5-stage pattern that appears before every major financial collapse. The same… https://t.co/WlLweP6X7A pic.twitter.com/N84I7uTW4q

— Share_Talk ™ (@Share_Talk) December 24, 2025

上記から最初を引用しておく。

How to read the sequence that precedes a Stock Market Crash

The pattern is not a theory. It is a repeatable sequence of market and credit conditions that has preceded the largest losses in modern financial history. The five stages are:

1. Credit explosion
2. Concentration trap
3. Smart money exit
4. Liquidity illusion
5. Trigger event

Each stage creates vulnerabilities. Together they turn routine volatility into systemic failure. Below I unpack each stage with historical examples and current parallels, then outline the indicators investors should track.

そして、投資家として、やるべきことは以下。

その時に、パニックになってはいけない。準備する時間はまだある。どう行動するかをあらかじめ考えておくことが大切。

確かに、それしか、自分を守る手段はない。

なぜなら、それは、おそらく、必ず、やってくる。

「やってくる」と思っている以上は、やってくるのだ。

自分で引き寄せているとも言えるが、思っている以上は、避けられないのだ。

なんというこの世の不条理、矛盾なのか！

What practical first steps should an investor take now?

Begin by quantifying exposure: calculate the effective weight of large-cap names in your equity allocation, assess margin and leveraged positions, review emergency cash reserves, and run downside scenarios. If necessary, rebalance to reduce concentration and ensure you have liquidity to avoid forced selling in a stressed environment.

Final note for investors

Patterns do not guarantee outcomes, but they inform probability. The five-stage sequence that has preceded past Stock Market Crash events is visible in multiple modern metrics. Investors who understand where the system is in that sequence can make more deliberate choices about risk, liquidity and allocation.

Being prepared need not mean panic. It means clarity. It means asking the hard questions about concentration, leverage and liquidity before a shock arrives, and preserving option value so that when markets reset, opportunity exists for those who have maintained capacity to act.